The method first, conclusions second
- Universe: the Mag 7 — AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA.
- Entry: buy on the first close that draws down to a "dip threshold" measured from the all-time running peak. Thresholds are calibrated to each stock's volatility, roughly 0.75–0.9× its historical maximum drawdown (e.g., -60% for TSLA, -30% for AAPL).
- Exit: take profit at +50% from the entry price; if not reached within 3 years (756 trading days), exit at the deadline.
- Non-overlapping: one position at a time; signals that fire while holding are skipped.
Core findings
Finding 1: a 100% hit rate in the historical sample. Since 2010, the seven stocks triggered 13 times combined — all 13 reached +50% within three years. Keep the denominator in view: the sample is small, and outside of Apple nearly every trigger came from the 2022 bear market.
Finding 2: the deeper the dip, the faster the rebound. The most consistent pattern in the entire study:
| Stock | Entry dip | Triggers | +50% hit | Longest wait |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | -60% | 1 | 1/1 | 155 days |
| TSLA | -60% | 3 | 3/3 | 122 days |
| NVDA | -60% | 1 | 1/1 | 93 days |
| AMZN | -50% | 1 | 1/1 | 188 days |
| GOOGL | -40% | 1 | 1/1 | 183 days |
| MSFT | -30% | 1 | 1/1 | 203 days |
| AAPL | -30% | 6 | 6/6 | 401 days |
Calibrated to each stock's own volatility, the longest wait from a "generational" dip to +50% clusters between three months and just over a year. What differs isn't the waiting time — it's the frequency: Apple offered six such setups in sixteen years; Meta offered one.
Stock by stock
META (-60% | 1 trigger | 155 days). Triggered September 14, 2022, amid the rate-hike bear market compounded by panic over metaverse spending; the stock ultimately drew down -76.7%. Then came 2023's "year of efficiency" — cost cuts and an advertising recovery — and +50% arrived about seven months (155 trading days) later.
TSLA (-60% | 3 triggers | 122 days max). Three triggers: March 18, 2020 (COVID crash, +50% in 14 days), December 13, 2022 (bear market, 122 days), and March 14, 2024 (76 days). Its high-beta nature means bottoms are often followed by violent snapbacks. Note: the early-2019 drawdown was about -50% and never reached the -60% line, so it is excluded from this count.
NVDA (-60% | 1 trigger | 93 days). Triggered September 13, 2022 (rate-hike cycle); +50% came 93 days later, just ahead of the generative-AI wave that powered its historic run. Note: the late-2018 crypto-bust drawdown was about -56% and never reached -60%; the -66.3% all-time maximum drawdown also dates to 2022.
AMZN (-50% | 1 trigger | 188 days). Triggered November 2, 2022 (e-commerce growth slowdown plus cost pressure); roughly six months (188 days) to climb out — a typical large-cap growth repair rhythm.
GOOGL (-40% | 1 trigger | 183 days). Triggered November 2, 2022. Its resilient business model rarely produces 50–60% panic selloffs; about six months to the +50% target.
MSFT (-30% | 1 trigger | 203 days). Triggered September 23, 2022. Among the megacaps Microsoft is one of the most drawdown-resistant names; -30% already counts as a historic dip for it, repaired through steady grinding over 203 days.
AAPL (-30% | 6 triggers | 401 days max). Six triggers spanning 2013 (401 days), 2016 (191), 2018 (210), 2020 (54), 2022 (124), and 2025 (123). The biggest ship grinds the slowest — the 2013 episode needed about nineteen months to reach +50%, the longest wait in the entire study.
Caveats before using these numbers
- Survivorship bias. Every name in the table grew into a top global market capitalization. Apply the same "buy the deep dip" to an ordinary growth or cyclical stock without a moat and the dip can keep dipping — possibly never recovering.
- Concentrated sample. Outside Apple, nearly every trigger comes from the 2022 bear market. These statistics describe "that bear market," not "every bear market."
- No stop-loss assumed. The backtest holds through the pain by design. In reality, positions routinely drew down another ~20% after entry (in Tesla's 2022 case, -55.8% further). Position sizing matters more than the entry point.
- Before taxes and trading costs. Real returns must deduct capital-gains taxes, commissions, and bid-ask spreads.
- History is not the future. Sixteen years of "big tech always comes back" reflect a specific rate regime, industry growth phase, and valuation backdrop. Do not apply mechanically.
- A different philosophy. Dip-buying is mean reversion — the opposite of trend following (e.g., exiting on a moving-average breakdown). Don't run both logics inside one system.